# delimit ;

clear;
*version 13;
set matsize 400;
set more off;


log using "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Primary/PredictedValues.log", replace;
cd "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Primary";

**************************************************************;
*Author: Jeff Carter                                         *;
*Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2014                              *;
*Purpose: Simulating Predictions                *;
**************************************************************;



*********************************;
**      Peace to War            *;
*********************************;

use "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta";

postutil clear;

postfile mypost prob_hat0 lo0 hi0 prob_hat1 lo1 hi1 diff_hat0 diff_lo0 diff_hi0
                using PredictedValues, replace;

noisily display "start";


local a=0 ;
while `a' < .1 { ;

{;


 
scalar h_Accountable =   0  ;
scalar h_LameDuck= 1  ;
scalar h_Civilian = 0;
scalar h_Military = 1;
scalar h_Constant = 1;
scalar h_Parliament = 0;
scalar h_CivilWar = 0;
scalar h_GDPpc =  12589.35;
scalar h_Growth = 3.453132;
scalar h_MajorPower = 0;
scalar h_Borders = 2;
scalar h_Mobilization =  -.0008714 ;
scalar h_Time = 5; 
scalar h_Female =0 ; 
 scalar h_Rivalry = 0 ;
 scalar h_Hawkish = 0;



generate x_betahat0 = MG_b1*h_Accountable
    + MG_b2*h_Hawkish
    + MG_b3*h_Rivalry
    + MG_b4*h_Borders
    + MG_b5*h_Parliament
    + MG_b6*h_Female 
    + MG_b7*h_Time 
    + MG_b8*(h_Time^2)
    + MG_b9*(h_Time^3)
    + MG_b10*h_Constant;

generate x_betahat1 = MG_b1* h_LameDuck
    + MG_b2*h_Hawkish
    + MG_b3*h_Rivalry
    + MG_b4*h_Borders
    + MG_b5*h_Parliament
    + MG_b6*h_Female 
    + MG_b7*h_Time 
    + MG_b8*(h_Time^2)
    + MG_b9*(h_Time^3)
    + MG_b10*h_Constant;

 
gen prob0=1/(1+exp(-x_betahat0));
gen prob1=1/(1+exp(-x_betahat1));

 
gen diff0=prob1-prob0 ;

egen probhat0=mean(prob0) ;
egen probhat1=mean(prob1) ;
egen diffhat0=mean(diff0) ;




tempname prob_hat0 lo0 hi0 prob_hat1 lo1 hi1 diff_hat0 diff_lo0 diff_hi0;

    _pctile prob0, p(2.5,97.5) ;
    scalar `lo0'=r(r1) ;
    scalar `hi0'=r(r2) ;

    _pctile prob1, p(2.5,97.5) ;
    scalar `lo1'=r(r1) ;
    scalar `hi1'=r(r2) ;

    _pctile diff0, p(2.5,97.5) ;
    scalar `diff_lo0'= r(r1) ;
    scalar `diff_hi0'=r(r2) ;


    scalar `prob_hat0'=probhat0 ;
    scalar `prob_hat1'=probhat1 ;
    scalar `diff_hat0'=diffhat0 ;




    post mypost (`prob_hat0') (`lo0') (`hi0') (`prob_hat1') (`lo1') (`hi1') (`diff_hat0') (`diff_lo0') (`diff_hi0')


    ;

    } ;

    drop    x_betahat0 x_betahat1 prob0 prob1 diff0 probhat0 probhat1 diffhat0;

    local a=`a'+ .1 ;

    display "." _c ;
    } ;
display "" ; postclose mypost ;



use PredictedValues, clear;
sum;

saveold PredictedValues, replace;

log close;
